That's all that separates $2 billion in daily oil from the open ocean. Two shipping lanes, each the width of Manhattan. Right now, they're effectively closed to most normal traffic.
The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. At its narrowest, it's just 21 miles wide - roughly the same as the English Channel at Dover.
Iran controls the northern shore, including Qeshm and Hormuz islands, plus the disputed Tunb and Abu Musa islands. Oman holds the south.
All traffic flows through a Traffic Separation Scheme: one inbound lane, one outbound lane, each 2 miles wide, separated by a 2-mile buffer.
A fully loaded supertanker needs several miles to stop or change course. In lanes this narrow, there's almost no room to maneuver.
That's roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids and more than a quarter of all seaborne oil trade. Add LNG and the daily value exceeds $2 billion.
Ship traffic has dropped sharply since fighting began, though some vessels continue to transit.
Kuwait has zero bypass route. Qatar ships 100% of its LNG through the strait.
According to the EIA, 84–89% of crude and condensate through Hormuz goes to Asian markets. China, India, Japan, and South Korea together account for about 69%.
The US has very limited direct import dependence on the strait. But global price shocks hit everyone.
Japan relies on the Middle East for ~90% of its oil. India sources roughly half its crude imports via Hormuz. Even China, with its Russian pipeline, has significant Gulf exposure.
A prolonged closure would trigger severe supply shocks across Asia and ripple into global markets.
↓ See full dependency breakdown below
"For 40 years, every geopolitical tremor in the Persian Gulf has sent ripples through this narrow passage."
During the Iran-Iraq War, both sides attacked commercial shipping. 451 ships hit. 430 civilian sailors killed. Dozens of tankers destroyed or declared total losses.
The US launched Operation Earnest Will - thelargest naval convoy operation since World War II.
Operation Praying Mantis: the largest US surface naval engagement since WWII. In a single day, the US sank an Iranian frigate, a missile boat, destroyed 2 oil platforms, and crippled another frigate.
56 Iranian sailors died. Iran lost roughly half its operational navy.
USS Vincennes shot down a civilian Airbus A300 over the strait. All 290 killed - including 66 children.
The pilot was pro-American, trained in Florida. His daughter was a US citizen. The US never formally apologized. The captain received a Legion of Merit.
Three decades of relative calm, but not peace. Speedboat standoffs (2008), threats to close the strait (2011-12), and the Iran nuclear deal (2015) that briefly eased tensions.
Then Trump withdrew from the deal in May 2018. Everything escalated.
The most intense year since the Tanker War. 4 ships sabotaged off Fujairah. Two tankers attacked in the Gulf of Oman. Iran shot down a $130M US surveillance drone.
Iran seized the British tanker Stena Impero, 23 crew detained for 2 months. Trump approved then called off a retaliatory strike.
Iran shifted to seizing tankers as leverage. The Hankuk Chemi (South Korean, 2021), Advantage Sweet (2023), MSC Aries (2024). Each taken by helicopter commandos.
By 2025, the IRGC had perfected a playbook: seize a ship, demand something, wait.
The US and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury with massive airstrikes. Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed. Iran retaliated with missiles and declared the strait closed.
Multiple ships attacked. At least seven merchant sailors killed (Reuters, March 18). Tanker traffic collapsed sharply.
Four decades of maritime incidents in and around the Strait of Hormuz. Every dot is a real event.
Hover over map dots for details.
"Iran doesn't need to win a naval war. It just needs to make the strait unusable."
Iran controls Qeshm (the Gulf's largest island, with underground missile installations), Hormuz, Larak, and the disputed Abu Musa and Tunb islands.
Ships must pass between them. Limited pipeline bypasses exist, but they can't replace the strait's capacity.
Each red circle shows the 120km strike range from a single island base. The circles overlap completely - the entire shipping corridor is within range.
These are sea-skimming cruise missiles. Flight time to a tanker: under 2 minutes.
The Khalij Fars anti-ship ballistic missile hits at Mach 3–5 with a 650kg warhead. Virtually impossible to intercept.
At 1,000km range, Iran's Qader 380L missiles (hidden in Qeshm's tunnels) can reach any ship in the entire Gulf region.
One of the world's largest mine stockpiles. A single $1,500 contact mine nearly sank USS Samuel B. Roberts in 1988.
The US Navy has 7 minesweepers. Analysts say it needs 16. Clearing the strait could take months.
The IRGC Navy's doctrine: swarm. Hundreds of boats at 50+ knots, each carrying rockets and mines, emerging from concealed coves and tunnel networks.
Plus Shahed drone swarms, midget submarines, and the "mosaic defense" -31 autonomous commands that fight without central orders.
S&P Global reported a 40–50% drop in early March. FT cited just 47 ships between March 2 and 14; AP counted about 90 from March 1–15. Thousands of seafarers are stranded.
The EIA estimates Saudi + UAE had about 6.5 million bbl/day of spare bypass capacity, well under one-third of the ~21M that normally flows through Hormuz. Saudi is currently pushing large volumes west via Yanbu.
"If we can't export our oil, nobody in the region will."
On July 3, 1988, USS Vincennes shot down Iran Air Flight 655 over the strait. All 290 people on board were killed - including 66 children. The pilot, Captain Mohsen Rezaian, was pro-American, had trained in Florida, and his daughter was a US-born citizen.
The United States never formally apologized. The captain received a Legion of Merit.
Every year, Iranians gather near the crash site and toss flowers into the water.
In Bandar Abbas, Iran's main southern port, 700,000 people live in the shadow of the strait. Port workers have no contracts, no insurance, no protective gear. After five years, they consider themselves "lucky to stay alive."
Seventeen million barrels of oil pass through their waters every day. To the north of the coastline, there is poverty and despair as far as the eye can see.
On Qeshm Island - home to a UNESCO Global Geopark with salt caves and rainbow canyons - the IRGC has built underground "missile cities." On March 7, 2026, a US airstrike hit the island's desalination plant, cutting freshwater to 30 surrounding villages.
Thousands of seafarers are stranded in the Persian Gulf - Filipino, Indian, Myanmar nationals working on tankers that can't move. Ships sit idle carrying vast quantities of oil. Greenpeace calls it "an environmental disaster waiting to happen."
Gulf states get 70–90% of their drinking water from desalination plants along the coast. This critical infrastructure is now at risk.
1973 remains the worst percentage spike. But the 2026 crisis disrupts a far larger absolute volume: ~21M bbl/day vs ~5M in 1973. If prolonged, analysts warn of significantly higher prices and severe recession risk for energy-dependent economies.